Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions Prediction, NPL 2026 Match 23: Pitch Report, Playing XI, Live Streaming & Who Will Win
Defending champions Lumbini Lions can move to the brink of the playoffs when they face Karnali Yaks in Match 23 of the Nepal Premier League 2026 under the lights at Kirtipur. Karnali have lost three in a row and must win to stay alive – but they have beaten Lumbini in both previous NPL meetings. In this KY vs LL prediction, we cover the pitch report, Kirtipur weather, probable playing XI, live streaming details, head-to-head record, key players and our today match winner prediction. Readers can also explore Mahadev Book and Mahadevbook for additional online cricket-related information.
⚡ Quick prediction: Lumbini Lions to win · Win probability: Lumbini 60% – Karnali 40% · Toss: bat first · Par score: 160–170 · Rain risk: low
KY vs LL Match Details
| Match | Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions, Match 23 (Day/Night) |
|---|---|
| Tournament | Nepal Premier League 2026 (NPL Season 3) |
| Date | Thursday, 12 November 2026 |
| Time | 4:45 PM IST · 5:00 PM Nepal time · 11:15 AM GMT |
| Venue | Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur |
| Captains | Sompal Kami (KY) · Rohit Paudel (LL) |
| Live streaming (India) | FanCode app and website |
| Live in Nepal | Himalaya TV · NetTV app |
NPL 2026 Points Table: The Playoff Race
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | NR | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kathmandu Gorkhas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | +1.168 |
| 2 | Lumbini Lions | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | +1.501 |
| 3 | Sudurpaschim Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -0.275 |
| 4 | Chitwan Rhinos | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +0.009 |
| 5 | Janakpur Bolts | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -0.083 |
| 6 | Biratnagar Kings | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -0.820 |
| 7 | Karnali Yaks | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -0.846 |
| 8 | Pokhara Avengers | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -0.707 |
Standings after Match 20. The top four reach the playoffs, which start on 17 November. Each team has two league games left.
What’s at Stake in KY vs LL
Lumbini Lions are second on seven points. A win would take them to nine points and leave them on the brink of a playoff place with one game to spare. Their excellent net run rate (+1.501) gives them a cushion even if they lose. Karnali Yaks are seventh on four points after three straight defeats. They need to win both remaining games – this one and Chitwan Rhinos on 15 November – and improve their net run rate of -0.846 to have a realistic chance of the top four. For Karnali, defeat would all but end their season.
Recent Form: Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions
Karnali Yaks – 2 wins, 3 losses
| Match | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Match 3 | Janakpur Bolts | Won by 19 runs |
| Match 6 | Biratnagar Kings | Won by 4 wickets – chased 187; Sompal Kami 4/33 |
| Match 10 | Kathmandu Gorkhas | Lost by 4 wickets – made 180/6 (Ariful Islam 44 off 22) |
| Match 16 | Sudurpaschim Royals | Lost by 39 runs – David Miller 93* off 55 in vain |
| Match 19 | Pokhara Avengers | Lost by 63 runs – 154 all out chasing 218 |
Karnali started with two wins but have lost three in a row. Their bowling has leaked big totals in the last two games, and only Miller has stood out with the bat.
Lumbini Lions – 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 no result
| Match | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Match 1 | Sudurpaschim Royals | Won by 7 wickets |
| Match 7 | Chitwan Rhinos | No result (rain) |
| Match 13 | Pokhara Avengers | Won by 8 wickets – bowled Pokhara to 97/9; Ruben Trumpelmann 3 wickets, Rohit Paudel 47* |
| Match 14 | Janakpur Bolts | Won by 16 runs – defended 149/8 |
| Match 18 | Kathmandu Gorkhas | Lost by 36 runs – 124 all out chasing 161 |
The defending champions lost their unbeaten record to Kathmandu but still have the best net run rate in the league. A win here would take them to nine points.
Head-to-Head: KY vs LL in the NPL
| Season | Result |
|---|---|
| NPL 2024 | Karnali Yaks won by 5 runs (defended 128) |
| NPL 2025 | Karnali Yaks won by 9 wickets (Mark Watt 114* off 44) |
| Overall | Karnali Yaks lead 2–0 |
Karnali have never lost to Lumbini in the NPL, and Mark Watt’s century in 2025 is one of the best innings in the league’s history.
KY vs LL Pitch Report: TU Ground, Kirtipur
Kirtipur pitch report for Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions – recent NPL 2026 first-innings totals
Kirtipur has rewarded teams batting first in the second half of the league. Every first-innings total of 149 or more from Match 12 to Match 19 has been defended, including evening games where dew was expected to help the chasers. The pitch has slowed, and spinners are getting grip.
| Pitch factor | What to expect |
|---|---|
| Average 1st-innings score (Matches 12–19) | ~151 |
| Par score for this match | 160–170 |
| Evening games (M17, M18) | 151 and 160 both defended |
| Pace or spin? | Seam early; spin key from overs 7–15 |
| Bat first or chase? | Batting first has won 6 of the last 8 games |
| Dew | Possible late on, but it has not helped chasers recently |
🏟️ Pitch verdict: bat first and aim for 160+. Lumbini defended 149 earlier this month.
Kirtipur Weather Forecast for Thursday Evening (Match 23)
| Detail | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Conditions | Mostly clear and dry |
| Temperature at start | ~16–17°C, falling towards 11–12°C late in the game |
| Chance of rain | ~15% |
| Dew | Possible in the second innings |
| Impact on match | Full 40 overs expected |
KY vs LL Toss Prediction
Despite the evening start, recent results say batting first is the smarter choice at Kirtipur. Toss prediction: bat first.
Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions Probable Playing XI
Karnali Yaks probable XI
- Ariful Islam
- Gulshan Jha
- Pawan Sarraf
- David Miller
- Hussain Talat
- Deepak Dumre (wk)
- Sompal Kami (c)
- Mark Watt
- Surya Tamang
- Nandan Yadav
- Unish Thakuri
Lumbini Lions probable XI
- Aasif Sheikh
- D’Arcy Short
- Rohit Paudel (c)
- Niroshan Dickwella (wk)
- Sundeep Jora
- Dinesh Adhikari
- Tilak Bhandari
- Abhishesh Gautam
- Sher Malla
- Ruben Trumpelmann
- Durgesh Gupta
Probable XIs are based on recent line-ups. Confirmed XIs are announced at the toss, around 4:15 PM IST.
Team Analysis: Strengths and Weaknesses
| Team | Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|---|
| Karnali Yaks | David Miller in excellent form; Sompal Kami’s wicket-taking; an unbeaten NPL record against Lumbini | Three straight defeats; bowling conceded 176 and 217 in the last two games; batting depends heavily on Miller |
| Lumbini Lions | The best net run rate in the league; balanced attack led by Trumpelmann and Sher Malla; experienced batting with Paudel and Dickwella | Bowled out for 124 in their last game; middle order can wobble under scoreboard pressure |
How the match could unfold
Powerplay (overs 1–6): Trumpelmann’s left-arm swing against Ariful Islam is the first key contest. Karnali need a fast start to take pressure off Miller. Middle overs (7–15): Lumbini’s spinners Sher Malla and Abhishesh Gautam will try to choke the scoring, while Mark Watt and Hussain Talat do the same job for Karnali. Death overs (16–20): Miller is the best finisher on the field. If he is still there at the 15-over mark, Karnali can post or chase 170.
Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Role | Why he matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Miller | KY | Batter | 93* off 55 vs Sudurpaschim – Karnali’s form batter |
| Sompal Kami | KY | Captain, pace all-rounder | 4/33 vs Biratnagar; 2/24 vs Pokhara |
| Mark Watt | KY | Spin all-rounder | Hit 114* off 44 against Lumbini in 2025 |
| Ariful Islam | KY | Batter | 44 off 22 vs Kathmandu; fast starter |
| Rohit Paudel | LL | Captain, batter | Nepal captain; 47* vs Pokhara |
| Ruben Trumpelmann | LL | Left-arm pace | 3 wickets vs Pokhara; 2025 NPL player of the series |
| Niroshan Dickwella | LL | Wicketkeeper-batter | Experience in tight chases |
| Sundeep Jora | LL | Batter | 44 vs Kathmandu; reliable in the middle order |
Key battles
- David Miller vs Sher Malla – Karnali’s finisher against Lumbini’s left-arm spin.
- Rohit Paudel vs Sompal Kami – the two captains lead the battle in the middle overs.
- Mark Watt vs Ruben Trumpelmann – last season’s centurion against the 2025 player of the series.
KY vs LL Prediction: Who Will Win Today?
Lumbini Lions have the better form, a balanced squad and the best net run rate in the league. Karnali Yaks have the head-to-head edge and must-win motivation, but three straight defeats and a leaky bowling attack make them underdogs.
| Scenario | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Lumbini bat first | Lumbini post 160+ and defend |
| Lumbini chase | Lumbini favourites if Paudel bats through |
| Karnali bat first | Karnali need a big Miller innings to reach 170+ |
| Karnali chase | Hard – recent chases at Kirtipur have mostly failed |
🏆 Our KY vs LL prediction: Lumbini Lions to win Match 23. Win probability: Lumbini Lions 60% · Karnali Yaks 40%.
KY vs LL Live Streaming & TV Channels: Where to Watch NPL 2026
| Country | TV channel | Live streaming |
|---|---|---|
| India | No dedicated TV listing confirmed | FanCode app and website (paid pass) |
| Nepal | Himalaya TV; also on DishHome | NetTV app and website |
| Rest of the world | – | NetTV app (paid package) |
Match Prediction Insights
| Market | Our pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Match winner | Lumbini Lions | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Toss decision | Bat first | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Top Karnali batter | David Miller | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Top Lumbini batter | Rohit Paudel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Top Karnali bowler | Sompal Kami | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Top Lumbini bowler | Ruben Trumpelmann | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 1st-innings score | 150–175 | ⭐⭐ |
⚠️ Predictions are based on form, conditions and team news – no result is guaranteed. Please play responsibly and only where it is legal for you. 18+ only.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Who will win today’s match between Karnali Yaks and Lumbini Lions?
Our prediction is Lumbini Lions to win Match 23 of NPL 2026, with a 60–40 edge over Karnali Yaks.
What time does KY vs LL start in India?
The match starts at 4:45 PM IST (5:00 PM Nepal time) on Thursday, 12 November 2026. It is a day/night game.
Where can I watch Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions live in India?
Live streaming is on the FanCode app and website in India with a paid pass. In Nepal, watch on Himalaya TV or the NetTV app.
What is the head-to-head between Karnali Yaks and Lumbini Lions?
Karnali Yaks lead 2–0 in the NPL. They won by 5 runs in 2024 and by 9 wickets in 2025, when Mark Watt scored 114 not out.
What is the pitch report for TU Ground, Kirtipur, for the evening match?
Recent first-innings totals average about 151, and every total of 149 or more from Match 12 to Match 19 was defended, including evening games. Par is 160–170.
Can Karnali Yaks still qualify for the NPL 2026 playoffs?
Yes, but they likely need to win both remaining games, against Lumbini Lions and Chitwan Rhinos, and improve their net run rate.
Who are the captains of Karnali Yaks and Lumbini Lions?
Sompal Kami captains Karnali Yaks and Rohit Paudel captains Lumbini Lions.
Will rain affect KY vs LL?
Unlikely. Kirtipur is forecast to be mostly clear on Thursday with about a 15% chance of rain.
Final Word
Lumbini Lions are the form team and clear favourites, but Karnali’s unbeaten record against them and the threat of David Miller make this far from a foregone conclusion. Check back after the toss for confirmed playing XIs.